The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) web site says that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is still expecting an above normal Atlantic Hurricane Season. As of 8am this morning, the NHC was tracking an area of low pressure that is currently centered over Puerto Rico. This low is expected to bring drenching rains and strong winds to the area which will also include portions of the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola today and tonight. The Turks, Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas can expect the same on Saturday. As a result, the NHC warns that these areas should know that there is the potential for flash floods and mudslides. Later today, a Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical disturbance. It’s a concern that the system’s exact amount of development will depend upon what path it takes. The less time that it spends over the open water without the benefit of gathering as much moisture as possible, the more hampered the system’s development will be. If it does happen to form into the next tropical storm, its name would be “Fay.”
Meanwhile, in the lower 48, an upper level ridge of high pressure is dominating the West Coast’s weather at the present time. Excessive Heat Warnings are posted for areas of the Pacific Northwest as well as the South Western US. A little bit closer to home, the National Weather Service has also warned that severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the South Central US as well as the I-95 Corridor from New York City to D.C.
For Philly, this means that today’s and tonight’s showers and thunderstorms, could become severe. Today’s high will be 79 and the overnight low will be 65. There may be some areas of fog by morning as well.
After any remaining shower or thunderstorm clears out early Saturday, the rest of the weekend looks to be dry with an afternoon high of 81 after a morning low of 65. Sunday will start out at 66 eventually reaching a high of 83. I think we’ll see the sun on both Saturday and Sunday as the drier air pushes its way into the region, but because of an upper level low, the clouds will make their presence felt as they will try to limit just how much sunshine that we’ll actually see.
Shabbat shalom! Have a great weekend!
Friday, August 15, 2008
Thursday, August 14, 2008
The Week Ahead
I see no changes in the forecast through Saturday, however miscalculations about Sunday on both thunderstorm and humidity likelihood did become evident—I’m squashing both as surface winds will be more from the northwest and the air will definitely be drier through Monday. The chances of any shower or thunderstorm is "there" but extremely minimal—of the isolated variety. After Tuesday's chances of rain, Wednesday will have my attention as I’ll be keeping my eyes on what might be a developing backdoor front as a High moves eastward across Canada, possibly poising itself to push winds into our area from the southeast giving us clouds and dampness possibly even drizzle, we'll see how this develops also…before we see the more humid pattern setting up on Thursday and Friday with south winds—combining with a storm system across the Tennessee valley that may bring in some more significant rain for the last two days of the work week. Though the system is a portrayed as a weakening one…depending on how much it does dissipate— at the very least it will be unsettled with the potential of showers during the day on Saturday. Its still a long way off as the system is now over Montana…so I’ll watch it and give updates on its progression and how the computer models are portraying it as time moves forward.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Enjoy the cooler temperatures, they're gone soon
A bit hazy with high thin clouds in the hour immediately after sunset seems to indicate a more a more moist, hazy transition as the NWS seems to indicate by their forecast of more humidity increasing over the next 24 hours. As I forecasted last night, showers and thunderstorms in the region have prompted the NWS to post flood warnings in Lancaster county---just a outside of what is commonly recognized as the western extent of the Philly area (which is my forecast area). Though the forecast for the potential of showers and thunderstorms in the region was discreetly portrayed by one prominent Philly network, the extremely close proximity of the flood warnings due to drenching downpours that did occur in Lancaster county confirmed that last night’s call for the potential of storms was a necessary one.
The continued chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue through at late Friday night. I am not saying there will be widespread rain and storms but at the least the threat will be lingering. A broad area of low pressure is working its way—slowly—across the Philly Tri-State area with many pockets of energy passing overhead which could touch off a shower or thunderstorm during the period. However the best chance for the strongest, largest storms will form during the day on Friday with the potential hanging around until very early Saturday morning.
By Sunday a more humid southwest wind will develop further aiding the increasing humidity during the progression of the weekend as the low pressure system further distances itself from the region. The chance for isolated thunderstorms are back for Sunday. Monday looks drier ahead of an approaching frontal system that will bring the increased threat of more widespread showers into the area on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures during this stretch will continue on the lower to average side through Friday night with highs in the low 80’s for Thursday and upper 70’s on Friday. Thursday night’s low will be in the upper 60’s and Friday’s will have mid 60’s. Saturday high will be the low 80’s, with Sunday and Monday in the upper 80’s. Tuesday will be in mid 80’s. Sunday to Tuesday’s lows will be in the low 70’s. Normal temperatures for the Philly region for this period from Wednesday night Aug 13th through Tuesday Aug 19th have highs in the low 80’s and lows in the upper 60’s.
The continued chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue through at late Friday night. I am not saying there will be widespread rain and storms but at the least the threat will be lingering. A broad area of low pressure is working its way—slowly—across the Philly Tri-State area with many pockets of energy passing overhead which could touch off a shower or thunderstorm during the period. However the best chance for the strongest, largest storms will form during the day on Friday with the potential hanging around until very early Saturday morning.
By Sunday a more humid southwest wind will develop further aiding the increasing humidity during the progression of the weekend as the low pressure system further distances itself from the region. The chance for isolated thunderstorms are back for Sunday. Monday looks drier ahead of an approaching frontal system that will bring the increased threat of more widespread showers into the area on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures during this stretch will continue on the lower to average side through Friday night with highs in the low 80’s for Thursday and upper 70’s on Friday. Thursday night’s low will be in the upper 60’s and Friday’s will have mid 60’s. Saturday high will be the low 80’s, with Sunday and Monday in the upper 80’s. Tuesday will be in mid 80’s. Sunday to Tuesday’s lows will be in the low 70’s. Normal temperatures for the Philly region for this period from Wednesday night Aug 13th through Tuesday Aug 19th have highs in the low 80’s and lows in the upper 60’s.
Continued Calm After Sunday's Storms
(Originally typed at about 9pm Tuesday Aug. 12th, technical difficulties delayed this post)
Outlook for Tuesday night through Thursday morning, Aug. 14th.
Some active weather in the south east us is causing a tornado watch from Louisianna eastward to the Florida panhandle. Tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings are going on Tuesday evening in parts of Colorado and Kansas. Farther west, in the Los Angeles County mountains there are Red Flag warnings in effect – extremely low humidity causing critical fire weather conditions.
In the Philadephia, PA area, the weather is tranquil. The State College, PA National Weather Service reported that funnel clouds were spotted in Lancaster County—far west of Philly—associated with the severe storms that prompted at least one tornado warning in Delaware County on Sunday.
For the next day or so through Thursday morning, our worst threat from the weather will come in the form of thunderstorms which be widely scattered across the Mid – Atlantic region over the next 24 hours as a trough of low pressure moves in from its current location in the western Great Lakes region.
Outlook for Tuesday night through Thursday morning, Aug. 14th.
Some active weather in the south east us is causing a tornado watch from Louisianna eastward to the Florida panhandle. Tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings are going on Tuesday evening in parts of Colorado and Kansas. Farther west, in the Los Angeles County mountains there are Red Flag warnings in effect – extremely low humidity causing critical fire weather conditions.
In the Philadephia, PA area, the weather is tranquil. The State College, PA National Weather Service reported that funnel clouds were spotted in Lancaster County—far west of Philly—associated with the severe storms that prompted at least one tornado warning in Delaware County on Sunday.
For the next day or so through Thursday morning, our worst threat from the weather will come in the form of thunderstorms which be widely scattered across the Mid – Atlantic region over the next 24 hours as a trough of low pressure moves in from its current location in the western Great Lakes region.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)