19 Elul 5768 the week before Rosh HaShanah
During the next 3 days Friday Saturday and Sunday, there will be a moderating trend at the least in the temperature department. The strong trough of low pressure that gave us the cool pool of air that is dipping temperatures into the upper 40s in parts of the western suburbs is now exiting its hold upon the Northeast US.
The change will be somewhat subtle as the High pressure that has been keeping us dry remains entrenched over us through Saturday. As a cold front moves in on Sunday from Canada, there will be little fanfare associated with it as clouds seem to be the most likely “threat” it poses to us—the air mass being another shot of the dry air that we’ve been used lately. The next high pressure that settles in will keep us dry with the temperatures next week back down to what we’ve seen for the better part of this past week with lows in the upper 40’s to low 50s and highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.
By the end of the week, a developing nor’easter that is this point looks like it’ll stay off the coast from MD on northward will stir up the waves at the shore and may give any boaters who are well offshore a tough time of it out over the open waters--which won’t be much of a problem for those of us here on dry land in the Philadelphia Tri-State area.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Friday, August 15, 2008
A Stormy Start to the Weekend
The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) web site says that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is still expecting an above normal Atlantic Hurricane Season. As of 8am this morning, the NHC was tracking an area of low pressure that is currently centered over Puerto Rico. This low is expected to bring drenching rains and strong winds to the area which will also include portions of the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola today and tonight. The Turks, Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas can expect the same on Saturday. As a result, the NHC warns that these areas should know that there is the potential for flash floods and mudslides. Later today, a Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical disturbance. It’s a concern that the system’s exact amount of development will depend upon what path it takes. The less time that it spends over the open water without the benefit of gathering as much moisture as possible, the more hampered the system’s development will be. If it does happen to form into the next tropical storm, its name would be “Fay.”
Meanwhile, in the lower 48, an upper level ridge of high pressure is dominating the West Coast’s weather at the present time. Excessive Heat Warnings are posted for areas of the Pacific Northwest as well as the South Western US. A little bit closer to home, the National Weather Service has also warned that severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the South Central US as well as the I-95 Corridor from New York City to D.C.
For Philly, this means that today’s and tonight’s showers and thunderstorms, could become severe. Today’s high will be 79 and the overnight low will be 65. There may be some areas of fog by morning as well.
After any remaining shower or thunderstorm clears out early Saturday, the rest of the weekend looks to be dry with an afternoon high of 81 after a morning low of 65. Sunday will start out at 66 eventually reaching a high of 83. I think we’ll see the sun on both Saturday and Sunday as the drier air pushes its way into the region, but because of an upper level low, the clouds will make their presence felt as they will try to limit just how much sunshine that we’ll actually see.
Shabbat shalom! Have a great weekend!
Meanwhile, in the lower 48, an upper level ridge of high pressure is dominating the West Coast’s weather at the present time. Excessive Heat Warnings are posted for areas of the Pacific Northwest as well as the South Western US. A little bit closer to home, the National Weather Service has also warned that severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the South Central US as well as the I-95 Corridor from New York City to D.C.
For Philly, this means that today’s and tonight’s showers and thunderstorms, could become severe. Today’s high will be 79 and the overnight low will be 65. There may be some areas of fog by morning as well.
After any remaining shower or thunderstorm clears out early Saturday, the rest of the weekend looks to be dry with an afternoon high of 81 after a morning low of 65. Sunday will start out at 66 eventually reaching a high of 83. I think we’ll see the sun on both Saturday and Sunday as the drier air pushes its way into the region, but because of an upper level low, the clouds will make their presence felt as they will try to limit just how much sunshine that we’ll actually see.
Shabbat shalom! Have a great weekend!
Thursday, August 14, 2008
The Week Ahead
I see no changes in the forecast through Saturday, however miscalculations about Sunday on both thunderstorm and humidity likelihood did become evident—I’m squashing both as surface winds will be more from the northwest and the air will definitely be drier through Monday. The chances of any shower or thunderstorm is "there" but extremely minimal—of the isolated variety. After Tuesday's chances of rain, Wednesday will have my attention as I’ll be keeping my eyes on what might be a developing backdoor front as a High moves eastward across Canada, possibly poising itself to push winds into our area from the southeast giving us clouds and dampness possibly even drizzle, we'll see how this develops also…before we see the more humid pattern setting up on Thursday and Friday with south winds—combining with a storm system across the Tennessee valley that may bring in some more significant rain for the last two days of the work week. Though the system is a portrayed as a weakening one…depending on how much it does dissipate— at the very least it will be unsettled with the potential of showers during the day on Saturday. Its still a long way off as the system is now over Montana…so I’ll watch it and give updates on its progression and how the computer models are portraying it as time moves forward.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Enjoy the cooler temperatures, they're gone soon
A bit hazy with high thin clouds in the hour immediately after sunset seems to indicate a more a more moist, hazy transition as the NWS seems to indicate by their forecast of more humidity increasing over the next 24 hours. As I forecasted last night, showers and thunderstorms in the region have prompted the NWS to post flood warnings in Lancaster county---just a outside of what is commonly recognized as the western extent of the Philly area (which is my forecast area). Though the forecast for the potential of showers and thunderstorms in the region was discreetly portrayed by one prominent Philly network, the extremely close proximity of the flood warnings due to drenching downpours that did occur in Lancaster county confirmed that last night’s call for the potential of storms was a necessary one.
The continued chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue through at late Friday night. I am not saying there will be widespread rain and storms but at the least the threat will be lingering. A broad area of low pressure is working its way—slowly—across the Philly Tri-State area with many pockets of energy passing overhead which could touch off a shower or thunderstorm during the period. However the best chance for the strongest, largest storms will form during the day on Friday with the potential hanging around until very early Saturday morning.
By Sunday a more humid southwest wind will develop further aiding the increasing humidity during the progression of the weekend as the low pressure system further distances itself from the region. The chance for isolated thunderstorms are back for Sunday. Monday looks drier ahead of an approaching frontal system that will bring the increased threat of more widespread showers into the area on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures during this stretch will continue on the lower to average side through Friday night with highs in the low 80’s for Thursday and upper 70’s on Friday. Thursday night’s low will be in the upper 60’s and Friday’s will have mid 60’s. Saturday high will be the low 80’s, with Sunday and Monday in the upper 80’s. Tuesday will be in mid 80’s. Sunday to Tuesday’s lows will be in the low 70’s. Normal temperatures for the Philly region for this period from Wednesday night Aug 13th through Tuesday Aug 19th have highs in the low 80’s and lows in the upper 60’s.
The continued chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue through at late Friday night. I am not saying there will be widespread rain and storms but at the least the threat will be lingering. A broad area of low pressure is working its way—slowly—across the Philly Tri-State area with many pockets of energy passing overhead which could touch off a shower or thunderstorm during the period. However the best chance for the strongest, largest storms will form during the day on Friday with the potential hanging around until very early Saturday morning.
By Sunday a more humid southwest wind will develop further aiding the increasing humidity during the progression of the weekend as the low pressure system further distances itself from the region. The chance for isolated thunderstorms are back for Sunday. Monday looks drier ahead of an approaching frontal system that will bring the increased threat of more widespread showers into the area on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures during this stretch will continue on the lower to average side through Friday night with highs in the low 80’s for Thursday and upper 70’s on Friday. Thursday night’s low will be in the upper 60’s and Friday’s will have mid 60’s. Saturday high will be the low 80’s, with Sunday and Monday in the upper 80’s. Tuesday will be in mid 80’s. Sunday to Tuesday’s lows will be in the low 70’s. Normal temperatures for the Philly region for this period from Wednesday night Aug 13th through Tuesday Aug 19th have highs in the low 80’s and lows in the upper 60’s.
Continued Calm After Sunday's Storms
(Originally typed at about 9pm Tuesday Aug. 12th, technical difficulties delayed this post)
Outlook for Tuesday night through Thursday morning, Aug. 14th.
Some active weather in the south east us is causing a tornado watch from Louisianna eastward to the Florida panhandle. Tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings are going on Tuesday evening in parts of Colorado and Kansas. Farther west, in the Los Angeles County mountains there are Red Flag warnings in effect – extremely low humidity causing critical fire weather conditions.
In the Philadephia, PA area, the weather is tranquil. The State College, PA National Weather Service reported that funnel clouds were spotted in Lancaster County—far west of Philly—associated with the severe storms that prompted at least one tornado warning in Delaware County on Sunday.
For the next day or so through Thursday morning, our worst threat from the weather will come in the form of thunderstorms which be widely scattered across the Mid – Atlantic region over the next 24 hours as a trough of low pressure moves in from its current location in the western Great Lakes region.
Outlook for Tuesday night through Thursday morning, Aug. 14th.
Some active weather in the south east us is causing a tornado watch from Louisianna eastward to the Florida panhandle. Tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings are going on Tuesday evening in parts of Colorado and Kansas. Farther west, in the Los Angeles County mountains there are Red Flag warnings in effect – extremely low humidity causing critical fire weather conditions.
In the Philadephia, PA area, the weather is tranquil. The State College, PA National Weather Service reported that funnel clouds were spotted in Lancaster County—far west of Philly—associated with the severe storms that prompted at least one tornado warning in Delaware County on Sunday.
For the next day or so through Thursday morning, our worst threat from the weather will come in the form of thunderstorms which be widely scattered across the Mid – Atlantic region over the next 24 hours as a trough of low pressure moves in from its current location in the western Great Lakes region.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Sin Theory Self-Critique
Introduction
In my reflections about my Global Warming text from April 16, I have grown a bit uncomfortable with some of the ideas that I expressed in it. Since it is my intent to grow in my understanding of weather, I test my theories with some regularity to see if they agree with reality. Due to the mystery surrounding certain elements of weather and my understanding of human imperfection, I try to remain open to the idea that I may need to make major or minor edits to both my theories and maybe sometimes my logic, as necessary.
I admit that all of this “testing of my theories” outside of the realm of a formal master’s or doctoral program probably may seem a bit out of place for a public “blog” forum; not to mention how its also possible that any bold declarations that I make about GOD and weather may not necessarily seem suitable for a scientific discussion. Nonetheless, in what may just turn out to be one grand brain-storming event for a future theory, I will press on in my desire to continue seeking comments and criticisms from the scientific community in response to my current theories and ideas.
Noah’s Weather Service began as an effort to chart new territory in the forecasting of weather to better protect the public from the dangers that many storms pose. Though it may be true that our ever-changing technology seems to be advancing the science by leaps and bounds with ever-increasing frequency, I still see consistent death and destruction in the weather statistics year after year. As I’m sure is probably true of most meteorologists, I would also like to use whatever means possible to, at the very least, make an attempt to save a few more lives each year.
In doing whatever it takes to accomplish such a lofty aspiration, would it not be true to at least consider some consider some of the basic strategies of the scientific greats of the past? Albert Einstein’s early years were marked by failure and discouragement but his later work caused a monumental shift in the scientific community because he did not allow himself to be bound by the limitations of traditional thinking. Likewise, now, I’m suggesting that we open up the potential goldmines of wisdom that are within our reach. If we would only consider that some of our traditional ideas about why weather occurs are too small in scope and are therefore not completely capable to explain the some weather events, then we may never again forecast a blizzard as a “virtual certainty” on national TV and get nothing close after all is said and done.
One of my history teachers in high school posted a sign in his classroom stating how we are all doomed to repeat the mistakes of history if we don’t learn from the lessons derived from its study. If the past 30 years of computer, radar, and other technology upgrades can not wipe out the death statistics of weather, then I’m skeptical that any future technology can.
By putting my different ideas out into the public forum, perhaps at the very least, some of the comments that I get in response may actually assist me or some other like-minded scientist enough to generate a theory to cause the next monumental shift in weather forecasting.
My Self-Critique of the Sin Theory
Even though I have the opinion that sin does have an important role to play in weather, it is not easy to show its relationship with our knowledge of weather.
It is probable that many readers will dismiss the sin theory about global warming for one of two reasons, if not both:
First, there is the popular idea that there is no GOD. Not a problem. People are entitled to their own opinions. Others could also dismiss my ideas easily by saying that it’s very convenient for me, as a practicing Messianic Jew, to just suspiciously insert some of my faith-based ideas into my weather theories in order to force people to believe in GOD. Frankly, it’s His job to show people that He’s real. My responsibility as an eved HaShem (servant of GOD) is to (1) do my best to describe how He is involved in the phenomena of weather and (2) just put out there the suggestion that if you don’t believe in GOD or Yeshua, ask Him to prove his existence to you, Himself.
Secondly, a person may find difficulty agreeing with my sin theory because it actually seems to be eaten up by my own opinions about a “global air temperature cycle.” Some might say that it would seem practically impossible to read into a statistical analysis any influence due to sin. Its challenging enough to consider such agents such as sun-spot activity, volcanic event frequency, earth-axis wobble, deforestation, and urban heat island effects could be more easily correlated with long-term average global temperatures. I agree with this counter-position, it has merit.
Thirdly, “How can I even say sin has anything to do with it?” might be a common question on the grounds that I was comparing apples and oranges by mixing philosophy with earth science. In the very best, most gracious scenario one or two “free thinkers” could say the theory could have the remote possibility--with the allowance of a little creative license. I think that this seemingly “philosophical” scenario is actually the one platform where my ideas have the potential to gain the most merit—based on the Einstein example. During the time of his failures, Einstein was greatly misunderstood, and that is the key.
To explain, let’s briefly consider King Solomon. During his reign over Israel, he wrote down what many consider to be some of the wisest statements that have ever been made by a mere man. In Kohelet (Ecclesiastes), chapter 11, verse 5 of the Jewish Scriptures, it says:
“…you cannot understand the work of GOD, the Maker of all things”(NIV)*
If this verse meant that we are not able to understand any of His work, then we would have no reason to promote anyone’s name above any other as the definite Messiah, nor would we really understand enough for it to even be an issue. However, the truth is we can understand a lot of GOD’s work and many will tell you that they have evidence to back it up. What King Solomon actually said was that we cannot understand “everything” that He does. This brings us to the point of the matter: just as Einstein was eventually understood through patience and close examination of his work, I believe that much of what GOD does with weather can also understood by using the same methods.
*Scripture taken from the HOLY BIBLE, NEW INTERNATIONAL VERSION. Copyright 1973, 1978, 1984 International Bible Society. Used by permission of Zondervan Bible Publishers.
In my reflections about my Global Warming text from April 16, I have grown a bit uncomfortable with some of the ideas that I expressed in it. Since it is my intent to grow in my understanding of weather, I test my theories with some regularity to see if they agree with reality. Due to the mystery surrounding certain elements of weather and my understanding of human imperfection, I try to remain open to the idea that I may need to make major or minor edits to both my theories and maybe sometimes my logic, as necessary.
I admit that all of this “testing of my theories” outside of the realm of a formal master’s or doctoral program probably may seem a bit out of place for a public “blog” forum; not to mention how its also possible that any bold declarations that I make about GOD and weather may not necessarily seem suitable for a scientific discussion. Nonetheless, in what may just turn out to be one grand brain-storming event for a future theory, I will press on in my desire to continue seeking comments and criticisms from the scientific community in response to my current theories and ideas.
Noah’s Weather Service began as an effort to chart new territory in the forecasting of weather to better protect the public from the dangers that many storms pose. Though it may be true that our ever-changing technology seems to be advancing the science by leaps and bounds with ever-increasing frequency, I still see consistent death and destruction in the weather statistics year after year. As I’m sure is probably true of most meteorologists, I would also like to use whatever means possible to, at the very least, make an attempt to save a few more lives each year.
In doing whatever it takes to accomplish such a lofty aspiration, would it not be true to at least consider some consider some of the basic strategies of the scientific greats of the past? Albert Einstein’s early years were marked by failure and discouragement but his later work caused a monumental shift in the scientific community because he did not allow himself to be bound by the limitations of traditional thinking. Likewise, now, I’m suggesting that we open up the potential goldmines of wisdom that are within our reach. If we would only consider that some of our traditional ideas about why weather occurs are too small in scope and are therefore not completely capable to explain the some weather events, then we may never again forecast a blizzard as a “virtual certainty” on national TV and get nothing close after all is said and done.
One of my history teachers in high school posted a sign in his classroom stating how we are all doomed to repeat the mistakes of history if we don’t learn from the lessons derived from its study. If the past 30 years of computer, radar, and other technology upgrades can not wipe out the death statistics of weather, then I’m skeptical that any future technology can.
By putting my different ideas out into the public forum, perhaps at the very least, some of the comments that I get in response may actually assist me or some other like-minded scientist enough to generate a theory to cause the next monumental shift in weather forecasting.
My Self-Critique of the Sin Theory
Even though I have the opinion that sin does have an important role to play in weather, it is not easy to show its relationship with our knowledge of weather.
It is probable that many readers will dismiss the sin theory about global warming for one of two reasons, if not both:
First, there is the popular idea that there is no GOD. Not a problem. People are entitled to their own opinions. Others could also dismiss my ideas easily by saying that it’s very convenient for me, as a practicing Messianic Jew, to just suspiciously insert some of my faith-based ideas into my weather theories in order to force people to believe in GOD. Frankly, it’s His job to show people that He’s real. My responsibility as an eved HaShem (servant of GOD) is to (1) do my best to describe how He is involved in the phenomena of weather and (2) just put out there the suggestion that if you don’t believe in GOD or Yeshua, ask Him to prove his existence to you, Himself.
Secondly, a person may find difficulty agreeing with my sin theory because it actually seems to be eaten up by my own opinions about a “global air temperature cycle.” Some might say that it would seem practically impossible to read into a statistical analysis any influence due to sin. Its challenging enough to consider such agents such as sun-spot activity, volcanic event frequency, earth-axis wobble, deforestation, and urban heat island effects could be more easily correlated with long-term average global temperatures. I agree with this counter-position, it has merit.
Thirdly, “How can I even say sin has anything to do with it?” might be a common question on the grounds that I was comparing apples and oranges by mixing philosophy with earth science. In the very best, most gracious scenario one or two “free thinkers” could say the theory could have the remote possibility--with the allowance of a little creative license. I think that this seemingly “philosophical” scenario is actually the one platform where my ideas have the potential to gain the most merit—based on the Einstein example. During the time of his failures, Einstein was greatly misunderstood, and that is the key.
To explain, let’s briefly consider King Solomon. During his reign over Israel, he wrote down what many consider to be some of the wisest statements that have ever been made by a mere man. In Kohelet (Ecclesiastes), chapter 11, verse 5 of the Jewish Scriptures, it says:
“…you cannot understand the work of GOD, the Maker of all things”(NIV)*
If this verse meant that we are not able to understand any of His work, then we would have no reason to promote anyone’s name above any other as the definite Messiah, nor would we really understand enough for it to even be an issue. However, the truth is we can understand a lot of GOD’s work and many will tell you that they have evidence to back it up. What King Solomon actually said was that we cannot understand “everything” that He does. This brings us to the point of the matter: just as Einstein was eventually understood through patience and close examination of his work, I believe that much of what GOD does with weather can also understood by using the same methods.
*Scripture taken from the HOLY BIBLE, NEW INTERNATIONAL VERSION. Copyright 1973, 1978, 1984 International Bible Society. Used by permission of Zondervan Bible Publishers.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Global Warming footnote
Shalom again!
As I was reviewing the pros and cons of my Global Warming post I realized that at least one important item was missing.
With reference to the Scripture notation, the following information was mistakenly forgotten:
Scripture taken from the HOLY BIBLE, NEW INTERNATIONAL VERSION. Copyright 1973, 1978, 1984 International Bible Society. Used by permission of Zondervan Bible Publishers.
Shalom for now!
As I was reviewing the pros and cons of my Global Warming post I realized that at least one important item was missing.
With reference to the Scripture notation, the following information was mistakenly forgotten:
Scripture taken from the HOLY BIBLE, NEW INTERNATIONAL VERSION. Copyright 1973, 1978, 1984 International Bible Society. Used by permission of Zondervan Bible Publishers.
Shalom for now!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)